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Old 05-24-2010, 05:44 AM   Post #1
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Default New Ice Age 'to begin in 2014'

New Ice Age 'to begin in 2014'



Chicago - A new "Little Ice Age" could begin in just four years, predicted Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia.

Abdussamatov was speaking yesterday at the Heartland Institute's Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago, which began Sunday and ends today.

The Little Ice Age, which occurred after an era known in scientific circles as the Medieval Warm Period, is typically defined as a period of about 200 years, beginning around 1650 and extending through 1850.

In the first of a two-part video WND recorded at the conference, Abdussamatov explained that average annual sun activity has experienced an accelerated decrease since the 1990s. In 2005-2008, he said, the earth reached the maximum of the recent observed global-warming trend.

See Part 1 of WND's video of Abdussamatov's speech below.

+ YouTube Video
ERROR: If you can see this, then YouTube is down or you don't have Flash installed.


In Part 2 of the video, Abdussamatov further explained that through 2014 the earth will go through a series of unstable variations in which global temperature will oscillate around the maximum reached in the years 1998-2005.

See Part 2 of WND's video of Abdussamatov's speech below.

+ YouTube Video
ERROR: If you can see this, then YouTube is down or you don't have Flash installed.


In 2003-2005, Abdussamatov predicted a reduction of sunspot activity that would reach a new minimum in 2042, resulting in a deep global temperature minimum in the years 2055-2060.

"My predictions are looking better and better with each passing year," Abdussamatov declared.

Space station to refine predictions

In his capacity of the head of the Russian-Ukrainian project "Astrometria" on the Russian segment of the International Space Station, Abdussamatov is conducting additional research to refine his prediction that a new Little Ice Age will begin in 2014.

As seen in Part 2 of the video, Abdussamatov explained to the climate conference that the Russian segment of the ISS is scheduled to collect more precise data on sun activity over the next six years.

"If the Astrometria project is developed in time," Abdussamatov said, "we will be able to develop a more precise forecast of the duration and the depth of the approaching new Little Ice Age and to understand the reasons of cyclical changes taking place in the interior of the sun and the ways they affect the Earth and various scopes of human activity."

Abdussamatov's theory is that "long-term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages to the big glacial periods."

In his speech's conclusion, Abdussamatov took on advocates of the theory of man-caused warming who want to diminish human use of hydrocarbon fuels. He contended, instead, that a reasonable way to combat coming cooling trends would be "to maintain economic growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle of the 21st century."

Sun activity determines temperatures

Abdussamatov's research amounts to a sharp rebuke of climate scientists who believe human-generated carbon dioxide is responsible for causing catastrophic global warming, issuing instead a news flash announcing "Sun Heats Earth!"

WND previously reported Abdussamatov published a paper in which he tracked sunspot activity going back to the 19th century to argue that total sun irradiance, or TSI, is the primary factor responsible for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide.

Moreover, Abdussamatov's analysis of sun activity data has led him to conclude that the Earth is entering a prolonged cooling phase, because sunspot activity is currently in a phase regarded as a "minimum."

"Observations of the sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon doioxide is 'not guilty,'" Abdussamatov wrote, "and as for what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged temperature drop."

Abdussamatov's paper is featured on page 140 of a 2009 report issued by the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, documenting more than 700 scientists who disagree that global warming is an anthropogenic, or man-made, phenomenon.

As historical support for his theory, Abdussamatov cited the observations in 1893 by the English astronomer Walter Maunder, who came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots had been generally absent. That period coincided with the middle and coldest part of the Little Ice Age.

Abdussamatov also observed "the most significant solar event in the 20th century was the extraordinarily high level and the prolonged (virtually over the entire century) increase in the energy radiated by the sun," resulting in the global warming that today climate alarmists believe is a man-made phenomenon.

"The intense solar energy flow radiated since the beginning of the 1990s is slowly and decreasingly and, in spite of conventional opinion, there is now an unavoidable advance toward a global decrease, a deep temperature drop comparable to the Maunder minimum," he wrote.

In his published paper, Abdussamatov warned that more precise determination of when the global temperature decrease will arrive and how deep it will be may not be available for another eight years from his space station research.

"The observed global warming of the climate of the Earth is not caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses, but by extraordinarily high solar intensity that extended over virtually the entire past century," Abdussamatov wrote. "Future decrease in global temperature will occur even if anthropogenic ejection of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere rises to record levels.

"Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop."

Abdussamatov concluded Earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by some scientists, since warming passed its peak in 1998-2005.

"The global temperature of the Earth has begun its decrease without limits on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions by industrial developed countries," he wrote. "Therefore, the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years."

In 2007, National Geographic published Abdussamatov's explanation that the global warming observed in the shrinking of the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mar's South Pole was caused by reduced solar activity.

"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," Abdussamatov wrote.

Some 700 policymakers, opinion leaders, elected national and state legislators, scientists, economists and media are attending the Heartland Institute conference. The come from a wide range of countries, including the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Australia and Mexico.

The Heartland Institute is a non-profit organization funded by 1,500 donors. The organization says no corporate donor provides more than 5 percent of its $7 million annual budget.

@ http://www.sott.net/articles/show/20...begin-in-2014-

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Old 05-25-2010, 12:21 AM   Post #2
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This can be initiated solely on the guaranteed rise of volcanic eruptions. The largest historical volcanoes in the World provide the right amount of gases and natural elements necessary to create an Ice Age, this is one of the core evidence to prove a potential Ice Age. The other causes are not as inevitable as volcanic eruptions.
Also, the Global Warming is certainly a form of provocation to the volcanoes.

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Old 05-25-2010, 01:01 AM   Post #3
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Remember the year without a summer, 1816.



Some discussion here, too.

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The years 1805 to 1820 were for many Europeans the coldest of the Little Ice Age. White Christmases were commonplace after 1812. The novelist Charles Dickens, born in that year, grew up during the coldest decade England had seen since the 1690s, and his short stories and A Christmas Carol seem to owe much to his impressionable years. Volcanoes were the partial culprit. The Tambora ash, lingering in the atmosphere over much of the world for up to two years, produced unusual weather. A two-day blizzard in Hungary during late January 1816 produced brown and flesh-colored snow. The inhabitants of Taranto, in southern Italy, were terrified by red and yellow snowflakes in a place where even normal snow was a rarity. Brown, bluish and red snow fell in Maryland in April and May. Everywhere, the dust hung in a dry fog. Wrote an English vicar : "During the entire season the sun rose each morning as though in a cloud of smoke, red and rayless, shedding little light or warmth and setting at night behind a thick cloud of vapor, leaving hardly a trace of its having passed over the face of the earth."

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Old 05-25-2010, 09:46 AM   Post #4
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^Eastern Europe was the place to be! How funny is that?
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Old 11-05-2010, 07:38 PM   Post #5
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A little update :

A puzzling discovery has raised a question mark over the Sun's impact on climate change and could provide ammunition for skeptics, it was revealed yesterday.

Until now it has been assumed that less activity from the Sun equates to less warming of the Earth.

But the new research, which focuses on a three-year snapshot of time between 2004 and 2007, suggests the opposite may be true.

As solar activity waned at the end of one of the Sun's 11-year cycles, the new data show the amount of energy reaching the Earth at visible wavelengths rose rather than fell.

Scientists believe it may also be possible that during the next up-turn of the cycle, when sun activity increases, there might be a cooling effect at the Earth's surface.

A further twist arises from the fact that over the past century, overall solar activity has been increasing.

If the new findings apply to long as well as short time periods, this could translate into a small degree of cooling rather than the slight warming effect shown in existing climate models. It would effectively turn received wisdom on its head.

Sceptics are likely to say the results further undermine the reliability of climate change science, especially with regard to solar effects.

Professor Joanna Haigh, from Imperial College London, who led the study, said: 'These results are challenging what we thought we knew about the Sun's effect on our climate.

However, they only show us a snapshot of the Sun's activity and its behaviour over the three years of our study could be an anomaly.

'We cannot jump to any conclusions based on what we have found during this comparatively short period and we need to carry out further studies to explore the sun's activity and the patterns that we have uncovered on longer timescales.

'However, if further studies find the same pattern over a longer period of time, this could suggest that we may have overestimated the sun's role in warming the planet, rather than underestimating it.'

Speaking at a news briefing in London, she denied that it would fuel scepticism about climate change research.

'I think it doesn't give comfort to the climate skeptics at all,' she said.

'It may suggest that we don't know that much about the Sun. It casts no aspersions at all upon the climate models.'

Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop.

Experts of the United Nations in regular reports publish data said to show that the Earth is approaching a catastrophic global warming, caused by increasing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop.

Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, recently predicted that a new "Little Ice Age" could begin in just four years.

The research, published in the journal Nature, is based on data from a satellite called SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) that has been measuring the Sun's energy output at X-ray, ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared wavelengths.

Prof Haigh's team found that, above an altitude of 28 miles, concentrations of ozone in the atmosphere increased as total solar output decreased.

The ozone rise accompanied a steep fall in levels of ultraviolet radiation.

Closer to the ground, an increase in visible radiation caused heating of the lower atmosphere.

'At face value, the data seem incredibly important,' Michael Lockwood, a space physicist at the University of Reading, told Nature.com.

'If solar activity is out of phase with solar radiative forcing, it could change our understanding of how processes in the troposphere and stratosphere act to modulate Earth's climate.'

'The findings could prove very significant when it comes to understanding, and quantifying, natural climate fluctuations,' he added.

'But no matter how you look at it, the Sun's influence on current climate change is at best a small natural add-on to man-made greenhouse warming.'

'All the evidence is that the vast majority of warming is anthropogenic. It might be that the solar part isn't quite working the way we thought it would, but it is certainly not a seismic rupture of the science.'

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Old 11-10-2010, 03:51 AM   Post #6
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Maybe, we just had snow in Santiago, and our November is like your May; its like having snow in San Francisco in May.
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Old 11-10-2010, 04:28 AM   Post #7
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I can't wait! I love cold weather. Aren't you glad it's cooling down now Storm?
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Old 12-31-2010, 02:09 PM   Post #8
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There's a mini ice age coming, says man who beats weather experts :

Piers Corbyn not only predicted the current weather, but he believes things are going to get much worse, says Boris Johnson, London's mayor.

Well, folks, it's tea-time on Sunday and for anyone involved in keeping people moving it has been a hell of a weekend. Thousands have had their journeys wrecked, tens of thousands have been delayed getting away for Christmas; and for those Londoners who feel aggrieved by the performance of any part of our transport services, I can only say that we are doing our level best.

Almost the entire Tube system was running on Sunday and we would have done even better if it had not been for a suicide on the Northern Line, and the temporary stoppage that these tragedies entail. Of London's 700 bus services, only 50 were on diversion, mainly in the hillier areas. On Saturday, we managed to keep the West End plentifully supplied with customers, and retailers reported excellent takings on what is one of the busiest shopping days of the year.

We have kept the Transport for London road network open throughout all this. We have about 90,000 tons of grit in stock, and the gritters were out all night to deal with this morning's rush. And yet we have to face the reality of the position across the country.

It is no use my saying that London Underground and bus networks are performing relatively well - touch wood - when Heathrow, our major international airport, is still effectively closed two days after the last heavy snowfall; when substantial parts of our national rail network are still struggling; when there are abandoned cars to be seen on hard shoulders all over the country; and when yet more snow is expected today, especially in the north.

In a few brief hours, we are told, the snowy superfortresses will be above us again, bomb bays bulging with blizzard. It may be that in the next hours and days we have to step up our de-icing, our gritting and our shovelling. So let me seize this brief gap in the aerial bombardment to pose a question that is bugging me. Why did the Met Office forecast a "mild winter"?

Do you remember? They said it would be mild and damp, and between one degree and one and a half degrees warmer than average. Well, I am now 46 and that means I have seen more winters than most people on this planet, and I can tell you that this one is a corker.

Never mind the record low attained in Northern Ireland this weekend. I can't remember a time when so much snow has lain so thickly on the ground, and we haven't even reached Christmas. And this is the third tough winter in a row. Is it really true that no one saw this coming?

Actually, they did. Allow me to introduce readers to Piers Corbyn, meteorologist and brother of my old chum, bearded leftie MP Jeremy. Piers Corbyn works in an undistinguished office in Borough High Street. He has no telescope or supercomputer. Armed only with a laptop, huge quantities of publicly available data and a first-class degree in astrophysics, he gets it right again and again.

Back in November, when the Met Office was still doing its "mild winter" schtick, Corbyn said it would be the coldest for 100 years. Indeed, it was back in May that he first predicted a snowy December, and he put his own money on a white Christmas about a month before the Met Office made any such forecast. He said that the Met Office would be wrong about last year's mythical "barbecue summer", and he was vindicated. He was closer to the truth about last winter, too.

He seems to get it right about 85 per cent of the time and serious business people - notably in farming - are starting to invest in his forecasts. In the eyes of many punters, he puts the taxpayer-funded Met Office to shame. How on earth does he do it? He studies the Sun.

He looks at the flow of particles from the Sun, and how they interact with the upper atmosphere, especially air currents such as the jet stream, and he looks at how the Moon and other factors influence those streaming particles.

He takes a snapshot of what the Sun is doing at any given moment, and then he looks back at the record to see when it last did something similar. Then he checks what the weather was like on Earth at the time - and he makes a prophecy.

I have not a clue whether his methods are sound or not. But when so many of his forecasts seem to come true, and when he seems to be so consistently ahead of the Met Office, I feel I want to know more. Piers Corbyn believes that the last three winters could be the harbinger of a mini ice age that could be upon us by 2035, and that it could start to be colder than at any time in the last 200 years. He goes on to speculate that a genuine ice age might then settle in, since an ice age is now cyclically overdue.

Is he barmy? Of course he may be just a fluke-artist. It may be just luck that he has apparently predicted recent weather patterns more accurately than government-sponsored scientists. Nothing he says, to my mind, disproves the view of the overwhelming majority of scientists, that our species is putting so much extra CO2 into the atmosphere that we must expect global warming.

The question is whether anthropogenic global warming is the exclusive or dominant fact that determines our climate, or whether Corbyn is also right to insist on the role of the Sun. Is it possible that everything we do is dwarfed by the moods of the star that gives life to the world? The Sun is incomparably vaster and more powerful than any work of man. We are forged from a few clods of solar dust. The Sun powers every plant and form of life, and one day the Sun will turn into a red giant and engulf us all. Then it will burn out. Then it will get very nippy indeed.

(Source)



And it might be helpful to note this bit of attached trivia :

Quote:
1638 - RARE LUNAR ECLIPSE - December 21st, 1638: "The lunar eclipse of Dec. 21st [2010] falls on the same date as the northern winter solstice. Is this rare? It is indeed, according to Geoff Chester of the US Naval Observatory, who inspected a list of eclipses going back 2000 years. 'Since Year 1, I can only find one previous instance of an eclipse matching the same calendar date as the solstice, and that is Dec. 21, 1638,' says Chester. 'Fortunately we won't have to wait 372 years for the next one...that will be on Dec. 21, 2094.' " [Based on: http://spaceweather.com/ - [T.D. 12/19/10]
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Old 12-31-2010, 08:13 PM   Post #9
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From back in October of this year :

Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia's weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.
Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.

“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer's heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren't able to predict an anomaly like that.”

In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold.

Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.

Moscow authorities have also started checking air conditioning systems in all socially important buildings. All the conditioners are being carefully cleaned from the remains of summer smog.

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Old 01-21-2011, 05:46 PM   Post #10
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I found this, wasn't sure how terribly useful it would be :

Quote:
Solar “Grand Minima” Preparedness Plan i.e. Little Ice Age Preparedness Plan

Mankind has been down this road before and we will go down this road again and we will survive. The last time we faced this type of disaster was over 300 years ago, as a result it has almost been erased from our collective memory. A solar “Grand Minima” produces a time of great hardship, a time of significant natural global cooling, a time of great famine and starvation and a time of major epidemics.The sun exhibits great variability in the strength of each solar cycle. This variability ranges fromextremely quiet “Grand Minima” such as the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 A.D.) to a very active“Grand Maxima” such as the enhanced activity observed during most of the 20th century (1940-2000A.D.). A solar Grand Minima is defined as a period when the (smoothed) sunspot number is less than 15 during at least two consecutive decades. The sun spends about 17 percent of the time in a Grand Minima state. In the past, these periods caused great hardship to humanity and significant loss of life. Solar Grand Minima events correspond to periods of dramatic natural global cooling. The MaunderMinimum (about 1645-1715 A.D.) and Spörer Minimum (about 1420 to 1570 A.D.) are two examples of recent “Grand Minima” events and each period has been referred to as a Little Ice Age.This threat is not a short-term problem but extends over several decades.

Of the 27 “Grand Minima’s” that have occurred over the past 12,000 years:

- 30% lasted less than 50 years,
- 52% lasted between 50 and100 years, and
- 18% lasted over 100 years.

Of these, the longest was Spörer Minimum which lasted approximately 150 years. The threat from a quiet sun is describe in the Solar Grand Minima Threat Analysis available at: http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/SGMTA.pdf.

This Preparedness Plan is a companion document to this analysis in which the threat is described in substantial detail.There are several lessons learned from studying very early global cooling events in Europe. These include:

* The onset of these conditions can be very abrupt and very severe.
* A decline in food production due to:
- Dramatic increase in days with overcast skies.
- Decline in the intensity of sunlight.
- Decline by several degrees in global temperature
- Regions of massive rainfall and flooding
- Limited regions experienced droughts
- Shortened growing season
* A string of major and minor famines.
* Malnutrition lead to weakened immune system. Produced influenza epidemics.
* Reoccurrence of plagues such as the Black Plague.
* Lack of feed for livestock.
* Parasites (i.e. fusarium nivale), which thrived under snow cover, devastated crops.
* Grain storage in cool damp conditions produced fungus (Ergot Blight). Contaminated grains when consumed caused an illness (St. Anthony’s Fire) producing convulsions, hallucinations, gangrenous rotting of extremities.
* Flooding created swamplands that became mosquito breeding grounds and introduced tropical diseases such as malaria throughout Europe.
* During hot summers, cold air aloft produced killer hailstorms (massive hailstones that could kill a cow).
* Higher frequency of powerful storms produced major devastations. (For example during the Spörer Minimum, approximately 400,000 people perished in the A.D. 1570 “All Saints Day storm” in northwestern Europe. And two catastrophic storms hit England and the Netherlands in A.D. 1421 and A.D. 1446, each storm killing 100,000.)
* Glacier advance swallowed up entire alpine villages.
* Ruptured glacial ice dams produced deadly floods.

Table of Contents includes :

Food Storage
Back-Up Heat Source
Adaptation
Homes and Businesses
Clothing
Transportation
Automobiles and Trucks
Cold Weather Adaptation
Blooming Idiots Award
Driving in Hazardous Weather
Snow Machines
Hovercraft
Hypothermia
Frostbite
Trench Foot and Immersion Foot
Dehydration
Sunburn
Snow Blindness
Cabin Fever
Drinking Water
Farming
Energy
Natural Resources
Plagues
Environmental Protection Agency
The paper is available both online and as a downloadable PDF file : Link
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